Bayes Theorem Shorts
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Description: Bayes' formula crowns a probability square divided into prior, likelihood and evidence, worked through to a posterior of 0.63. How much should a new piece of evidence change your mind? Start with a prior belief, weigh how likely the evidence would be if it were true and if it were false, and update. Rational belief is a matter of degree, revised in the light of data. Source: Thomas Bayes, 1763, Pierre-Simon Laplace, 1774.